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Additional resources for Risk Management, Strategic Thinking and Leadership in the Financial Services Industry : A Proactive Approach to Strategic Thinking
Sample text
As nominal rates go up in the US, more and more capital flows into the US from the EMs, in order to benefit from those high rates. This is the fundamental reason behind the recent financial market volatilities. This gradual upward trend is partly about the movement of the neutral real policy rate. The neutral real rate is proven to have changed recently (see the PIMCO’s new neutral argument as opposed to the constant real rate argument of Fama, a classic economist), Pimco (2015). It is considered to be around 0 % currently and moving up very slowly.
On the other hand, despite the recent improvements in Japan and Europe, most of the significant economies such as the BRICs, Europe and Japan have had new recessions post-2009. Post the 2008 crisis, the world economies have discovered themselves in a New Normal. This new Normal may be characterized as a new potential level of output, inflation; as well as a new era for financial markets, key economic policies, and the asset market movements. As Pimco has rightly pointed out, the world economies are going through a series of changes and hence are likely to crave for the previous growth figures of the pre-2008 period.
2 The recent trend among the world economies. The Author’s graph 27 The World Economies The US and the UK Emerging Markets Excl. China The Eurozone, Japan and China There are currently concrete divergences across the world economies, both in terms of growth and the monetary policies implemented. Even just focusing on the advanced economies, you would realize that: on one hand, you have the US and UK that are growing acceptably and tightening their monetary policy; and on the other hand, there is the Euro Area and Japan with weak economy and hence following expansionary policies (Fig.